Archive for the ‘Primaries’ Category

A pretty good

13 Dec

explanation of polling.

I’m NOT saying that the polls are completely wrong–Trump’s showing is too strong for that. And it shows just how angry and aggravated people are. But we need to understand that polls are often not accurate, and they have become less so in recent years. Technology has NOT been kind to pollsters

For example, I have not participated in a single poll in well over a year. There are 2 good reasons for this. The first is that I don’t have a land line. I think those went the way of the dinosaur. So how do they get my number in the first place? Random dialing, maybe. The second is that if a pollster actually got through I would angrily hang up immediately. Then the number would be “blacklisted” and they would NEVER get through again.

So that gives you a little insight into the challenges pollsters face.

So Trump is doing well among those with land lines who are willing to chat with pollsters. Now the question is the predictive power of such polls. I think that is an open question. The technological landscape is changing so rapidly and has changed so much in even the last four years (for example, I had a land line then) that I think there is real question about whether these phone polls are reliable. And now we’ve seen Maybe they are and maybe one can overcome these hurdles…

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Goodbye Newt

02 May

We hardly knew ye. No wait, we knew you only too well. That’s why you lost. Badly.

But G’bye anyway. Buh-bye.

We need to understand. The GOP got the best candidate even theoretically available. No one who ran or who didn’t run was even close.

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Now Gingrich

25 Apr

finally gives notice that he is going to leave. Good.

Look, I’m glad that Gingrich is going to (at least nominally) support Romney, and that is a dang sight better than Santorum (which shocks me). But Gingrich was never a good option…

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No comeback

25 Apr

for Newt. Good. You wonder if those who vote for Newt are smart enough to breathe on their own…

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So what if Newt gets a

24 Apr

Delaware upset? Would anyone really care? It might buy him 15 minutes of fame and Romney 30 minutes of pain, but honestly, who gives a rat’s patoot? It would be forgotten in a nanosecond. Gingrich is a loser, in ALL senses of that word. The idea that he is a conservative is a sick joke. Only a great fool would buy that. And even a fool wouldn’t believe it. Only those without the mental facilities to regulate core temperature and sense pain would believe it.

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Yeah, time for

11 Apr

Gingrich to go, too.

He won’t, and he has pretty much become irrelevant anyway. But no one cares what he is doing, and I don’t think him dropping out would make one iota of difference. He will ride the gravy train for as long as is humanly possible. Him staying in is a testament to greed and delusion.

Gingrich delenda est

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So Santorum

11 Apr

bows out. But as is typical for him, he was utterly graceless.

I think it is the end for Rick Santorum. He will never be a player again. Romney kicked his trash, and he ought to have the class to admit it. But he doesn’t. Romney would likely have beat him in his home state of Pennsylvania, which would have been incredibly embarrassing for Santorum.


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Get used to

08 Apr


Was there ever a more obvious prediction? Maybe a more obvious one is that the U.S. is heading over a financial cliff and yet Obama and the dems fiddle while the U.S. burns…

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We’ve got three weeks, but

06 Apr

it seems like things are starting to change. I certainly sense a change in the wind. Even when Gingrich was riding high, I had the sense that it was a very short-term situation. I never thought his latest boomlet might take off. I thought the Rick Santorum boomlet would be shorter, but it is the last one, and it therefore is likely to last longer. But he shouldn’t be confused in thinking that this somehow means that people like his message. That would be an easy mistake to make, and it is a bad one. It will end, and in the not too distant future.

If Romney were to beat Santorum in his (Santorum’s) home state of PA, it would both be really embarrassing and be the formal end of his campaign. Good. It can’t end soon enough. On to Obama!

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05 Apr

Very interesting, indeed.

Why would you take a 4-day vacation in the middle of a primary fight (assuming you’re not Newt Gingrich)? Seems pretty odd. Perhaps he has some thinking to do…

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