explanation of polling.
I’m NOT saying that the polls are completely wrong–Trump’s showing is too strong for that. And it shows just how angry and aggravated people are. But we need to understand that polls are often not accurate, and they have become less so in recent years. Technology has NOT been kind to pollsters
For example, I have not participated in a single poll in well over a year. There are 2 good reasons for this. The first is that I don’t have a land line. I think those went the way of the dinosaur. So how do they get my number in the first place? Random dialing, maybe. The second is that if a pollster actually got through I would angrily hang up immediately. Then the number would be “blacklisted” and they would NEVER get through again.
So that gives you a little insight into the challenges pollsters face.
So Trump is doing well among those with land lines who are willing to chat with pollsters. Now the question is the predictive power of such polls. I think that is an open question. The technological landscape is changing so rapidly and has changed so much in even the last four years (for example, I had a land line then) that I think there is real question about whether these phone polls are reliable. And now we’ve seen Maybe they are and maybe one can overcome these hurdles…