Senate democrats will have a much tougher row to hoe in 2012. The math really makes it hard for them, and we can expect that the battle will be huge. Not only that, but Obama will be on the ticket. That can be a blessing for the dems because he is a good campaigner and a great 4th quarter player. But he is also immensely unpopular right now, and unless that changes (and it likely will), he will be a drag on democrat Senators up for re-election. Not only that, but republicans will be motivated to get Obama out of office and someone in who will enact their legislative agenda (repeal of Obamacare, for example). So Obama being on the ticket is a mixed blessing. Yeah, he’s great at campaigning, but he is also quite polarizing. As of now he can simply veto anything he doesn’t like and demagogue the issue. Many people will bleatingly buy that, uh, stuff. Sure it’s weak sauce, but it’s effective just the same.
Here is my advice for Obama: right after the tsunami election, he makes changes to Obamacare. Nothing big, but mainly window dressing. Then he touts how HE didn’t like some aspects, either, and he got the GOP to go along with him to change it. If they won’t do it, they are racist jerks (like we all knew). If they do it, they are co-opted into Obama and Obama reaps the benefits of appearing flexible and “on your side.” See, he is a uniter, not a divider! He shows that he wants change (Hope and Change!), and he can blame the problems on Pelosi, Reid, and the democrat leadership while himself gaining the good will of the sheeple out there.
But I’m not sure that Obama characterologically can do that. He’s not Bill Clinton, who simply had no moral compass whatsoever–he is a idealogue and is basically rigid. But the Clinton way is the ONLY way to safety.