While 11 percent of survey participants did not approve or disapprove, Biden’s approval rating is underwater in 48 states, including the typically dark blue California and his home state of Delaware. The only two states in which he is above water are Hawaii and Vermont.
Approval of 32%. I really doubt that it can go any lower. There just aren’t that many degrees of freedom left to vary (to use statistical language). In fact, I figured 33-35% was as low as it could go.
Biden has hit rock bottom, and there really is virtually no more statistical “space” for him to go down any more. We are already into the “I’ll vote for a moldy dinner roll if it has a ‘D’ attached to it” crowd. I just don’t think there is any more statistical variance in play for Biden to go down any more.
I certainly could be wrong, but I would be very surprised to see Biden go any lower. He can pretty much only go up, now–it is math and statistics. And I think he will be at about 42-45% by election day. We shall see.
But don’t be snookered by the MSM that he is making “a comeback” when he very predictably goes to 45%. Anyone who knows anything about such things expects it. So let’s not be shocked or dismayed when it happens! The math here almost demands it.
CAVEAT: If culturally Biden totally crashes and burns, if it becomes stylish to be anti-Biden, if (for example) late-night comics openly belittle him most nights, more statistical space will open up, the variance increases, and his numbers can then go down.
But I don’t see that happening, here. Possible, but not at all likely, IMHO.
Still, that is exactly what happened to Jimmy Carter (see: Killer Rabbit). In fact, he was leading Ronald Reagan in many of the late polls! NEVER forget that.