needs to be a bit careful.
I think there’s really no question that in a massed, set-piece war with Ukraine, Russia would rather easily win.
BUT, war is really not like that, now. A drone is pretty inexpensive (and often off-the shelf), yet it can be devastating. See, Russians within 100 miles of the Ukraine border are now very much at risk.
And THAT is a new “wrinkle” on warfare. Now the “motherland” is a chip that is put on the table. War has not really changed in many ecades, but it is changing now! A weaker enemy might well be able to strike at the heart of the aggressor. An aggressor “king” is no longer safe on his throne.
What if, say, a group of Ukrainian sympathizers flew a drone into the Kremlin itself? Into Putin’s residence? Yeah, it might not work. But what if they flew multiple “swarms” of drones into a target over 24 hours? THEN the defenders have to be absolutely perfect, while the “rebels” just need to get lucky one time in 100…
See, a long time ago, battlements and castles and city walls were awesome weapons of war (or defense). Defenders always had a HUGE advantage. So siege engines were devised to overcome that advantage.
But things are no longer like that. Things changed drastically with the advent of gunpowder. Then air power. Now drones. These are utterly seismic shifts in war, and THAT hasn’t happened in 100 years. Or more.
The Romans famously built a Roman city each night to defend themselves. But that just doesn’t happen anymore, and for good reason. And you no longer see (new) walls and battlements…