against overconfidence. Remember, Democrats steal elections, and they WILL steal this one, too, if they have half a chance. So yes, I am glad to see this kind of stuff in polls, but I am wary, and realize very well that unless WE get involved in policing the voting, Democrats will steal the election. Again.
Below are the top five post-debate polls that appear to confirm Silver’s analysis:
ONE: Suffolk University poll: Forty-one percent of Democrat voters want President Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 race, while only 51 percent want him to remain on the ticket.
TWO: YouGov poll: 72 percent of voters say Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, while another 72 percent of voters want Biden to drop out of the race.
THREE: New York Times/Siena poll: Trump leads Biden by 6 points, a three-point swing from last week and the largest recorded lead since 2015 in Times polling.
FOUR: Wall Street Journal poll: Trump leads Biden by 6 points, his largest-ever lead in a Journal survey.
FIVE: Leaked internal Open Labs poll: “Biden’s vote share in the two-way horse race declined by -0.8pp,” and the “vote share against Trump in the multi-way also declined by -0.8pp.” The results reveal “the largest single-week drop since horse race tracking began in late 2021,” according to the memo.
Honorable Mention: CNN poll: Trump built a lead over Biden of 49 percent to 43 percent.
And all these are good. But they are generally national numbers and the actual election is made up of 50 or so state elections! So yes, very good. But we need to see how it shakes out state-by-state.
That said, big cities usually trend Democrat. For example, CA has 54 electoral votes. So the Democrat would get those 54 whether he or she wins by ONE vote or a million votes.
That means that close vote totals favor Republicans.