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Current Events Polls

Polls are better

than nothing, but they are inherently pretty unreliable. Kind of sketchy. Still, they are basically all we have.

While they are one of the best gauges of public opinion, they’re hardly prophetic. State-level polls are even worse. According to one study, election polls are 60% accurate, which is only ten percentage points away from a coin toss. 

Betting markets (which have Donald Trump as the 2024 favorite), for instance), tend to be more reliable than polls.