have fallen and they can’t get up. BUT, they certainly might in the next year. They look right now to be in very bad shape. But they may recover. In fact, history says it is probable. The “out” party almost always gains seats in the mid-terms.
That said, I’m not at all sure I would bet that way. We are in very different conditions than usual right now. And we, I think, are seeing a level of conservative enthusiasm that is not much in history. Not for mid-term, anyway. Right now, we are singing that we have never seen happened before. What does that mean? I don’t think we really know yet. We are kind of in uncharted waters.
After four years of the Biden administration, the Pew Research Center said the presidential electorate moved favoring Democrats by six points in 2020 to favoring Republicans by one point in 2024, with Republicans close to equal among under-30 voters. “For months now,” Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini notes, “We’ve observed a new trend in polling: the Democratic party’s favorability ratings have fallen below the GOP’s. That’s hardly ever happened before.”