a simpler (and far more likely) answer to the question of how polls could be so wrong about Hong. Yes, all the things mentioned in the article were indeed part of the picture, but I really don’t think any of them were causative.
So what was? Well, it was a strong streak of wish-fulfillment with the pollsters. I mean, you’re not off by 20 to 23 points just on the basis of a single small error. No, we are talking about a systemic error that is pretty much transparent to the pollster.
And basically the error was this: Pollsters tweaked things in order to get the results that they desperately wanted and felt was “right.” They were not doing science, they were unconsciously doing advocacy. THAT is how you are wrong by 23 points!
And that is a far more difficult problem to solve. Because you are not trying to change a procedure here and there, you are trying to change a total culture.
Remember, polling is a “garbage in, garbage out” kind of thing. And your strong beliefs may prevent you from discerning garbage from non-garbage. Just because it matches your hopes and desires and biases doesn’t mean it is actually true!
Those pollsters should be totally embarrassed. They should never want to show their face in public again.
