Category: Polls

Categories
Morality Polls Science

Ok, it is scary

for me, but here’s an optimistic article for you. You know, I can’t help but worry that voter fraud might well win the day.

So don’t get cocky!

I mean, Kamala is truly demonically disgusting. Hearing her crow about how she can destroy innocent people’s lives “with a stroke of my pen” was just chilling!

When I saw that clip, my first thought was, “Holy crap, what kind of monster IS this? And how could a moral person vote for THAT?

But back to the ranch…

People seem to be turning in the right (Right) and moral direction. Almost all the polls suffer from kind of a “lemming effect.” It is VERY difficult to contact people in this age of cell phones and caller ID.

So ALL there actually is is statistical “bootstrapping,” and THAT is indeed prone to investigator bias. You actually can’t lift yourself off the ground by pushing up on your own bootstraps!

In other words, scientific validity is highly suspect! The assumptions and even methods are usually hidden behind a defensive industry jargon. And yet, those methods and assumptions virtually 100% determine the outcome of the poll! As one commenter put it:

One rather gets the impression that even political junkies are one more election cycle away from giving up entirely on polls in general. They can’t build a sample, they can’t find the population, it’s all becoming increasingly imaginary. [emphasis in original]

But in the current situation, polling outfits want to make it seem close enough that people won’t say, “Oh c’mon!” if fraud carries Kamala’s worthless carcass over the finish line.

My worry is that Democrat voter fraud will overcome the voice of the people. I dearly hope not…

Categories
Current Events Polls

Look, let’s not

get overconfident, here. Democrat WILL cheat like a bugger. Just as they did last time. Things are not always what they seem, and the MSM lies and jukes as much as they can.

Folks, you have a video camera in your pocket. Use it!

Categories
Current Events Polls

Polls are better

than nothing, but they are inherently pretty unreliable. Kind of sketchy. Still, they are basically all we have.

While they are one of the best gauges of public opinion, they’re hardly prophetic. State-level polls are even worse. According to one study, election polls are 60% accurate, which is only ten percentage points away from a coin toss. 

Betting markets (which have Donald Trump as the 2024 favorite), for instance), tend to be more reliable than polls.

Categories
Polls

Polling now

is all about weighting. LOTS of people can’t be polled at all, so pollsters just have to guess how to weight their results.

In other words, it’s opinion, not science… And as such, is a reflection of the investigator’s preferences and biases.

Categories
Change Hope Polls

Yes, good

news. But I am still a bit skeptical!

This doesn’t account for the massive voter fraud that the Democrats WILL bring to the table.

But still, we are seeing some important and heartening changes.

Categories
Current Events Polls

Huh.

You don’t say! Well, they probably should be worried, given the history of “shy” Trump voters!

Democrats’ fears is the knowledge that Trump greatly out-performed predictions in all three states in 2016, when he narrowly won them en route to his election triumph over Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, when he was pipped by Joe Biden by far smaller margins than forecast. 

Look, there is a very good reason that campaigns do their own internal polling: They don’t believe public polls, either.

Categories
Culture Polls

Look, don’t break

out the Champagne just yet…

And there are TWO big reasons for that:

  1. Polls are less than fully reliable. I mean, there is a sampling issue that seems impossible to overcome. A TON of people are like me and ONLY have a cell phone–no land line at all. And it is virtually impossible to poll such people. Sure, I can use what I have to “guesstimate” what the numbers really are, but to be honest, I know few people who even have land lines or would pick up if an unknown call came in!
  2. Even if they will participate, will the person on the line tell the truth? Tell a stranger that they are counter-culture and will vote Trump? It’s kind of a shot in the dark. Back in the late 80s people felt a need to be quite open about things. But I don’t think that is the case now.

And can you blame people for hiding? Look at the culture, for Pete’s sake!

I’m just not sure how these two things, particularly in combination, can fail to render most results meaningless.

Conservatives, run through the tape, not to the tape…

Categories
Polls

Yes, there are

some real questions.

While Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have caught up to Trump in the polls, Democrat pollsters are still wondering, “How real is her surge?”

… Another stark warning sign for Democrats is the likelihood of a polling error concerning the reality that Trump’s appeal is very difficult to ascertain via polling, as surveys underestimated the forty-fifth president in both 2016 and 2020, Politico reported.

The truth is, Harris does not seem popular among regular, non-partisan-hack people. Maybe it just my area. But I also have a friend in southern California who said that Trump signs vastly outnumber Harris signs even there.

Plus, there is a HUGE enthusiasm gap for Trump. Harris is more like, “You eat your lukewarm peas, or something REALLY bad will happen!” It’s ALL based on anti-trump fear mongering…

Again, those two observations are hardly scientific findings. But they are indeed interesting…

Categories
Polls PWNED!

Both brutal

and beautiful! But beware of Democrat voter fraud! And remember, get out and vote! Bank your vote if it makes sense for you. Because if it isn’t close, they can’t steal it!

But is these numbers among Independents hold, Kamala is toast!

Categories
Politics Polls

Is it, though?

I mean, I dearly hope so. Kamala is a terrible candidate, and Democrats have to wear her around their necks like a stinky dead albatross! But I don’t think the honeymoon is over quite yet. It will be soon, but it will last more than a couple days!

Probably. The patina of newness has not yet worn off One thing we KNOW from the Democrat primary is that Kamala really doesn’t wear well. She needs a TON of early voting, because people are very likely to be heartily sick of her by the time November comes around!

.As this top-of-the-ticket move solidifies, and it becomes clearer and clearer that Democrats are now stuck with Harris—just as they were previously stuck with Biden—it begs the question: Did they make a critical mistake? The early evidence would suggest that, yes, they did.

… Initial polling suggests Harris trails Trump nationally by anywhere from 2 percent to double digits. Just as was the case with Biden as the nominee for Democrats, these numbers are horrific for Democrats’ electoral college prospects. 

Developing…