likely true. “Beltway wisdom.” Isn’t that an oxymoron?
Un any case, it certainly is not good data about the mid-terms. Still:
The first poll to measure public response to the raid indicates that it has galvanized Republicans and Independents. A new survey conducted by the Trafalgar Group for Convention of States Action found that 83.3 percent of GOP voters and 71.7 percent of Independent voters are more motivated to vote in the midterms than they were before the FBI descended on Mar-a-Lago.
… The survey also breaks down responses by ethnicity in the crosstabs, and the news isn’t good for Democrats. The share of Hispanics who said the Mar-a-Lago raid increased their motivation to vote in the midterms was a whopping 80 percent, while 69.9 percent said it was initiated by Trump’s political enemies. This suggests that this episode may well accelerate the increasing tendency of Hispanics to vote Republican.