The first key insight, according to Trafalgar, is that Independents and Republicans are four times as likely to have already moved to a place that is more hospitable to their values.
… In other words, Independents and Republicans have in recent years been four times as likely to pick up and change their address in search of neighbors to whom they can relate, at least on most issues.
… Think about that — One of every 10 Republicans are planning, not just thinking about, pulling up stakes and heading to a Texas, Florida, Tennessee, one of the Carolinas or another state with a distinctly red political cast.