I think it’s a

really good question. Are the repeated findings we see of Trump getting 20% of the Black vote (or more in some polls) even halfway realistic?

At this point, there’s not much dispute that polling shows a substantial swing vis-à-vis 2020, which is particularly strong among minority voters. Horse-race polls in the 2024 rematch typically show Donald Trump attracting in the neighborhood of 20% of the black vote, which would be a historically strong showing.

I don’t know what will happen. I’m not sure the polls are accurate–it’s still very hard to believe. But these are catastrophic numbers for Biden!