here.
But like I have repeatedly said, I don’t think Biden can mathematically go much lower. Pretty much ALL the “degrees of freedom” have been accounted for, and (in technical terms) there’s statistically not enough variance left out there for it to change much.
I think that 33% is about as low as it CAN go. There are a lot of “dead-ender” Democrats that will “vote blue no matter who.” And THAT is extremely unlikely to change short of a seismic shift. See, there’s no mathematical variance in that group.
Think of it this way (though it’s a very imperfect analogy): When you’re on your own 20 (in football) you might gain 20 yards fairly easily. It’s a quarter of the available yards. But if you are on your opponent’s 15-yard line, gaining 5 yards is a HUGE deal. You then just gained a third of the available yards by getting those 5 yards! Defenders have less area to defend and there’s less room to maneuver. Things are so much more compacted now that each yard is, in fact, “bigger.”
It’s just mathematically unlikely that Biden will drop below 33%, unless there is a HUGE external event.